The Kentucky Derby
Is the Grand National losing its unpredictability after two consecutive favorites win for the first time in 130 years?
The great race has been won by favorites in consecutive years for the first time since 1894. The victories of Cloister and Why Not in the 19th century races had 15 and 14 runners, respectively.
The average field size increased in the following decades, leading to the race gaining a reputation for unpredictability, which contributed to its popularity. The widely foreseen successes of Corach Rambler (8-1) and I Am Maximus (7-1) have raised concerns about the race’s unpredictability and its popularity.
Cutting the field size by 15 percent was expected to improve the betting market’s chance of identifying the right horses and possibly resulting in more frequent returns for once-a-year punters.
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